白糖周报（10.20-10.24）-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar prices mainly fluctuated slightly in the range of 5400 - 5500. Domestic sugarcane crushing has begun. In the main producing area of Guangxi, the sugarcane yield was affected by the typhoon in the early stage and decreased [4]. - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction compared to the previous forecast [4]. - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively strong, mainly because the typhoon affected the main sugar - producing area in Guangxi, causing some sugarcane fields to be affected and the yield to decrease. At the same time, the Zhengzhou sugar contract shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunity of the price difference between contracts 1 and 5. The short - term range of the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5400 - 5450 [4]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. The change of the formula of American Coke to use sucrose is also a bullish factor. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a supply deficit of 200,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, Datagro estimated a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicted a surplus of 4.2 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 400,000 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar - producing area was 1.262 million hectares, with a sugar production of 9.96 million tons, imports of 4.75 million tons, and consumption of 15.5 million tons. For the 2025/26 season, the sugar - producing area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, with a sugar production of 11.2 million tons, imports of 5 million tons, and consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [41]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report