棉花周报（10.20-10.24）-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The previous price was oversold, and with the new cotton coming onto the market and China - US negotiations in progress, the bearish sentiment has eased [4]. - Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous bearish news has been gradually digested, and the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. The futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The national cotton output is expected to be 728000 tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/2026 season are both 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish factors: a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors: ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and inventory trends [13][14]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/2026 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons (+3.9%) [15]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for the 2025/2026 Season: The output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report regarding position data.