工业硅期货周报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. Supply is expected to increase next week, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 0.74%. Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is expected to recover continuously, and cost support remains stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The 01 contract opened at 8500 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8920 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 4.94% [4]. - Supply: This week's industrial silicon supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 49,905 tons, a 3.36% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 69.23%, a 7.29 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's industrial silicon demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. In different sectors, polysilicon inventory is high, organic silicon is in a loss state, and the aluminum alloy inventory is high [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the dry season has increased [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price: The 01 contract opened at 52,700 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 52,305 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.74% [7]. - Supply: Last week's polysilicon output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The predicted October production is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from last month [7]. - Demand: In different sectors, silicon wafer production is in a loss state, battery cell production is in a loss state, and component production is profitable. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term [7][8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,930 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon price - basis and the spread between delivery products over time [14]. - Inventory: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [18][19][20]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and start - up rates in different regions are presented [22][23][25]. - Cost: The cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, are shown [29][30]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the relationships among production, import, export, consumption, and balance [31][32][35]. - Downstream Industries: - Organic Silicon: Trends of DMC price, production, downstream product prices, import - export, and inventory are presented [37][38][39]. - Aluminum Alloy: Trends of price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive industry) are shown [46][47][51]. - Polysilicon: Trends of price, cost, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, accessories, and power generation are presented [54][55][60]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [77][78]. - Polysilicon (PS): The 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [79][80].