沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, while some imported supplies such as Sumitomo arrived. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and as the rainy season in the Philippines approached, mines held prices firm, and shipping freight rates remained stable this week. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continued to loosen downward. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and the destocking process resumed. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices oscillated this week, with average trading volume. The supply of Russian nickel was tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In the new energy industry chain, the substitution of ternary materials was becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand slowed down [8][26]. - Trading Strategies: - The main contract of Shanghai nickel would oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800 [9][86]. - The main contract of stainless steel would oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [10][87]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes: - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week [13][19]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.35%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 0.53%, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [13]. - The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all increased slightly, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% [14]. - Nickel Ore Market: - Nickel ore prices and shipping freight rates remained stable. As of October 23, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.9791 million wet tons, a decrease of 309,300 wet tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.02%. In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 232,200 tons, a decline of 3.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.5483 million tons, an increase of 33.91%. The nickel ore market had fair trading this week, and as the Philippines entered the rainy season, future supplies might decline [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: - Nickel prices oscillated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 25.03%. The estimated production in October 2025 was 37,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 20.42%. In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,181 tons, an increase of 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons, an increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 936 tons, a decline of 6.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,807 tons, an increase of 36.94% [25][26][29]. - Nickel Iron Market: - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decline of 5.06% and a year - on - year decline of 13.64%. In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons, an increase of 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons, an increase of 47.2%. The nickel iron inventory in September was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - Stainless Steel Market: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In September, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, of which the 300 - series production was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The latest stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 24, the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,800 tons [59][64][70]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - Nickel Ore: Neutral. Quotations were stable, shipping freight rates were flat, and the rainy season was approaching [84]. - Nickel Iron: Neutral. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line decreased to some extent [84]. - Refined Nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and inventories continued to accumulate at home and abroad [84]. - Stainless Steel: Neutral. Inventories declined [84]. - New Energy: Neutral. Production data were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [84].