大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.14% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. Lithium carbonate imports in September 2025 were 19,597 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8]. - Cost side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,342 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,139 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,835 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost is close to the ore - end cost, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Overall situation: The imbalance between supply and demand persists, with strong supply and weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,660 - 80,380 yuan/ton [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's production increase and future production and import forecasts show a growing supply [8][9]. - Demand: Inventory increases in downstream enterprises and expected future demand changes [8][9]. - Cost: Different raw - material production costs and profit situations [9]. - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans and a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end and weak acceptance from the power - battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: - Futures closing prices of different contracts show price fluctuations, and most contracts have price changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 420 yuan to 79,520 yuan, a 0.53% decrease [16]. - Base - difference data shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on October 24 was 75,400 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was - 4,120 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount to futures [9][16]. - Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 28,699, a 0.21% decrease [16]. - Upstream Price Data: - Lithium ore prices increased, with lithium spodumene (6%) rising by 11 dollars to 881 dollars/ton, a 1.26% increase, and lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) rising by 50 yuan to 1,940 yuan/ton, a 2.65% increase [16]. - Other raw - material prices also had different degrees of changes, such as a 4.01% increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate [16]. - Supply - side Data: - Production and cost data of different raw - material lithium carbonate, such as daily lithium spodumene production cost increasing by 708 yuan to 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase [19]. - Import and export data of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, such as a 10.61% increase in monthly lithium - concentrate imports [19][20]. - Demand - side Data: - Inventory data of downstream enterprises, such as a 1.49% increase in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate to 104,347 tons [19]. - Battery - loading volume data, such as a 21.60% increase in the monthly total power - battery loading volume to 76,000 GWh [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - Lithium Ore Supply: - Price trends of lithium ore over the years and production trends of domestic lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines [26][27]. - Import volume and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, such as the import volume and proportion of Australian lithium ore [27]. - Supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [30]. - Lithium Carbonate Supply: - Weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) [31][32]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with different monthly supply - demand balance situations [38]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: - Capacity utilization, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) [40][41]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [43]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different raw - material production costs and profit situations of lithium carbonate, such as the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica [46]. - Recycling production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different waste materials, such as waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary materials [48]. - Cost - profit situations in the production and processing of lithium hydroxide, such as the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing methods [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Weekly and monthly inventory data of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory [19][53]. - Monthly inventory data of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory [53]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - Lithium Battery Demand: - Battery price trends, production volume, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries [55][56]. - Cost data of different types of lithium - battery cells [56]. - Ternary Precursor Demand: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [61][62][65]. - Ternary Material Demand: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and import - export volume of ternary materials [67][68][70]. - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [73][76]. - New - Energy Vehicle Demand: - Production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles [80][81]. - Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory data of new - energy vehicles [85].