大越期货沥青期货周报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96%. - In terms of supply, the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73%. The production of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. - In terms of demand, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, down 0.46 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, down 0.51 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, up 3.00 percentage points month - on - month; and the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, down 3.50 percentage points month - on - month. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short term. - In terms of inventory, social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; and port diluted asphalt inventory increased. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate. - It is expected that the demand recovery next week will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Review and Outlook - This week, the 01 contract rose. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96% [5]. - Supply: The total planned asphalt production in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the production capacity utilization rate decreased, shipments increased, production decreased, and maintenance volume increased. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with most construction rates showing a downward or slightly upward but still sub - average trend [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit increased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [6]. - Inventory: Social and factory inventories decreased, while port inventory increased. It is expected that demand recovery will be limited next week, supply will decrease, cost support will strengthen, and the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [6]. Asphalt Futures Market - Price and Basis Trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil, and the spread trends between asphalt contracts, providing a reference for analyzing the relationship between asphalt futures and spot prices and the price trends of related products [9][10][15][16]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends between asphalt contracts (1 - 6 and 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, helping to understand the relative price relationships and market trends among different products [12][15][18][22]. Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, reflecting the price changes in the asphalt spot market [25]. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the spread trends between coking and asphalt profits, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production and the profit differences between different production processes [28][31]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume, local refinery asphalt production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume. These data reflect the supply - side situation of asphalt, including production, inventory, and raw material supply [34][36][39][43][47][50][53]. - Inventory Analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, etc., reflecting the overall inventory situation of asphalt [56][61][64]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [67][70]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt construction rates (by type and use), and downstream construction conditions. These data reflect the demand - side situation of asphalt [73][76][79][83][88][91][94]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of asphalt [99]. Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [104].