工业硅期货早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand picked up, and the cost support rose. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy showed different trends [6]. - Cost: The production in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 was at a loss of 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Base Difference: On October 24, the spot price in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons. The main port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Expected Trend: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9035 for the 2601 contract [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The planned output for October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The output of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends in production and inventory. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently at a loss, while the production of components is profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - Base Difference: On October 24, the N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Expected Trend: The supply is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, while the demand is expected to recover in the medium - term. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51485 - 53125 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference of some contracts increased. The inventory and production showed different trends in different regions [15]. - Polysilicon: The futures closing prices of most contracts decreased, and the base difference, inventory, and production of related products also showed different trends [17]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - base difference and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production, and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through charts [20][25][29][36]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - base difference trend, and inventory trend are presented through charts [22][23]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Industrial Silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, consumption, import, and export of industrial silicon in different periods [39][42]. - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, consumption, import, and export of polysilicon in different periods [68]. 3.6 Downstream Product Trends - Organic Silicon: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented through charts [45][47][52]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy are presented through charts [55][58][59]. - Polysilicon Downstream: The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry are presented through charts [71][74][77]