大越期货沥青期货早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure remains high, and the demand - side recovery is weak. The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8][12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthening expectations of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [8]. 3.1.2 Basis - On October 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 51 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a positive basis [8]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. Social inventory and factory inventory continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. 3.1.4 Disk - The MA20 line was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 line, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish signal [8]. 3.1.6 Expectation - Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand fails to meet expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and crude oil prices are strengthening. Cost support will strengthen in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The asphalt 2601 is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 3277 - 3321 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview, including the values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as the 01 - 10 contracts, social inventory, weekly inventory, weekly output, etc. For example, the 01 contract value was 3299, with a previous value of 3277, an increase of 2, and an increase rate of 0.67% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - Main Contract Spread: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [23][24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are shown [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [30][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 to 2025 is shown [39][40][41]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [42][43]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [44][45]. - Output: The weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [47][48]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [51][53]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [54][55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown [57][58]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [59][60]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [66][67]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented [69][70]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Situation - The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][77]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Output: The output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [81][82]. - Downstream Demand: It includes the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream asphalt products (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [93][94][96][97][98][99][100][101]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [103][104].