大越期货PVC期货早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods is weakening. This week, the supply pressure has decreased, but it is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4679 - 4737. The report also lists the positive factors such as supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, as well as the negative factors such as the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [6] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, unchanged from last week. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [6] - Demand: The overall downstream开工rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Downstream profiles开工rate was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream pipes开工rate was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Downstream film开工rate was 72.5%, unchanged, higher than the historical average. Downstream paste resin开工rate was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous, but the current demand may remain weak [6] - Cost: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2350.05 yuan/ton, unchanged, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6] - Basis: On October 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was - 38 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [6] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 333,800 tons, a 7.35% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252,100 tons, a 9.02% month - on - month decrease. Ethylene method factory inventory was 81,700 tons, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 554,700 tons, a 0.26% month - on - month decrease. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a 6.66% month - on - month decrease, showing a neutral situation [6] - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [6] - Main Position: The main position has a net short position, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Presents the previous day's PVC market data, including the values, previous values, and price changes of various indicators such as enterprises, partial monthly spreads, East China SG - 5, national calcium carbide method, national ethylene method, downstream开工rates, futures closing prices, and inventory data [12] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: Displays the historical data of PVC basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [15] - Price and Volume Trend: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest changes of PVC futures from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [18] - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical data of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [21] 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lancoke: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, inventory, and daily output of lancoke from 2020 to 2025 [24] - Calcium Carbide: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [27] - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Displays the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [29] - Caustic Soda: Displays the price, cost - profit,开工rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - Displays the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [35][36][39] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工rate, and开工rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [41][42][49] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [53] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [55] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [58]