甲醇周报：港口库存高位、伊朗限气预期仍存，甲醇博弈持续-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears around cost and inventory. The futures main contract 2601 first declined and then rebounded, while most spot prices fell, and the market trading sentiment was poor. Domestic methanol production has been declining continuously, but many sets of devices have restart plans recently, so supply is expected to pick up. Imported goods are affected by sanctions, weather and other factors, and the unloading speed is lower than expected, which eases the inventory - building pressure to some extent. However, the downstream's recent purchasing willingness is poor and the floating storage at sea is large, so the probability of continued inventory - building at ports in the future is still high, and the current bullish driving force is still insufficient. In the medium term, Iranian devices are likely to reduce or stop production due to gas restrictions in the fourth quarter. Once the gas restrictions start ahead of schedule, Iranian supply may drop precipitously, which will support the methanol price. Attention should be paid to the operation of overseas devices. [1][25] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures first declined and then rebounded. The main 2601 contract dropped to a minimum of 2,233 yuan/ton and then rebounded, with the weekly line closing flat. The trading volume decreased by about 220,000 lots to 3.48 million lots compared with the previous week, and market sentiment became more cautious. Most spot prices fell. The port market prices continued to weaken, and the market negotiation atmosphere was average. Downstream and traders mainly entered the market for low - price rigid demand. The inland market first declined and then rebounded. The external procurement of olefin plants in Inner Mongolia boosted the regional demand, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall increase was limited. The prices in the southwest region rose due to low inventory and cost support. [5] 2. Supply Side - Domestic supply is expected to pick up. From January to September, the cumulative domestic methanol production was 75.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.05 million tons or 11.96%. In September, the monthly output was 8.0914 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 260,000 tons. Recently, the number of methanol maintenance devices has increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output have continued to decline. However, many sets of devices such as Ningxia Changyi, Guangju New Materials, and Zhongmei Yuanxing are planned to restart this week, involving a capacity of over 3 million tons/year. It is expected that domestic supply will pick up again. As of October 24, the domestic methanol device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 1.9435 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 74,100 tons. [6][7] - Overseas device operating rates declined slightly. In Iran, Kimiya restarted after a short - term shutdown last week, Marjan had a technical failure and temporarily stopped, and Apadana stopped. In non - Iranian regions, only the large M5 device of South American MHTL was operating. As winter approaches, Iran will gradually restrict industrial gas use to ensure domestic gas supply. Methanol production highly depends on natural gas, so it is the core target of gas restrictions. High - frequency data shows that on the week of October 24, the overseas methanol device capacity utilization rate was 73.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78 percentage points, 2.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weekly output was 1.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,000 tons, slightly higher than the same period last year by 1,400 tons. [9] 3. Demand Side - The peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are coming to an end, and demand is unlikely to grow. In the East China region, the methanol price fluctuated weakly. Due to the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices followed the decline, and the decline was greater than that of methanol. The losses of MTO devices expanded, and some devices reduced their operating rates, with the capacity utilization rate declining. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the device losses were repaired, and the suppression of methanol was alleviated. On the week of October 24, the MTO device capacity utilization rate was 90.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.58 percentage points. [11] - The operating rates of traditional downstream devices showed mixed trends. Most downstream enterprises were in a loss state, which limited their production enthusiasm, and the overall procurement rhythm was slow. On the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid devices was 74.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 20.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether devices was 5.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde devices was 39.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.27 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Shandong MTBE devices was 67.79%, a month - on - month increase of 4.67 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points. [15] 4. Inventory - Last week, the arrival volume at coastal ports was 352,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. At the same time, the提货 volume in Jiangsu decreased, and the ports started to build up inventory again. There are still many foreign trade ships in transit, and the subsequent arrival volume is high, so the port inventory pressure continues, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared, which limits the upside space of methanol. The manufacturers' inventory fluctuated slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is expected that the manufacturers' inventory will decline slightly this week. On the week of October 24, the social inventory was 1.5122 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 403,500 tons. Among them, the port inventory was 1.8726 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 317,600 tons; the manufacturers' inventory was 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 85,900 tons; the downstream enterprises' inventory was 163,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 29,200 tons. [16] 5. Cost Side - Recently, coal prices have risen, and the profits of methanol devices have been poor. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production have shrunk, while gas - based production has remained in a loss state. After the National Day, coal prices continued to rise, but the increase has narrowed since last week. At the end of the week, the market sentiment weakened. Shenhua lowered the purchase price, and port traders were more willing to sell. Many mines at the pithead lowered their selling prices. On the supply side, last week, the capacity utilization rate of 462 mines in the country was 91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 percentage points, and the daily output was 547,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. Near the end of the month, some mines will stop production, and the supply of market coal will shrink slightly. In addition, the supervision of over - production is still strict, and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, last week, the cold air moved south, the daily consumption of southern power plants decreased, and most power plant inventories were above the safety line, so the short - term replenishment willingness was average. In the north, some areas have started heating, and the procurement enthusiasm of power plants has increased, and demand has improved. In general, under policies such as safety supervision and strict inspection of over - production, the supply side is difficult to increase. On the demand side, northern regions are starting winter storage one after another, and the market purchasing sentiment has improved. However, due to the alleviation of high temperatures in the south and the rapid rise of coal prices before, the downstream's resistance mentality has become stronger, and the upward support for coal prices has weakened, and there may be a correction. [20] 6. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and new sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia activated the geopolitical risk premium, and oil prices rose rapidly, driving the petrochemical sector to stop falling. In terms of supply and demand, although there was positive support for US inventories last week, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that in the four weeks as of October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year, and the weak demand signal restricted the rebound height. The macro - level probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October exceeded 90%, which provided support. This week, oil prices will still be under the combined effect of "geopolitical support + supply - demand suppression". Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on October 28 and the China - US talks at the APEC Summit in early November. [24]