原油周评：美俄关系恶化短期提振，油价上方空间有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were strong, erasing all losses since October due to US sanctions on Russia. In the current market, US sanctions on Russia have reduced expectations of a broader supply, but the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting in early November may lead to increased production, and US oil storage plans may also increase supply, which could suppress oil prices. Financially, the market expects interest rate cuts after the release of US September CPI data, which may relieve macro - economic pressure. Politically, the change in US policy towards Russia may boost oil prices in the short - term, but its long - term impact is uncertain. Overall, oil prices may have limited upside in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [13][73]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia, erasing losses since October. This week, oil prices may remain strong, but with limited upside due to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage plans. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 495 yuan/barrel, make short - term long positions cautiously, and take short positions on rallies in the long - term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, reducing market expectations of a broader supply and causing oil prices to rise. The deterioration of US - Russia relations may also prevent an effective cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the short - term, which also contributed to the rise in oil prices [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - Inflation Data: In September, US inflation data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI annual rate was 3%, and the core CPI also showed a downward trend, which boosted market confidence and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [24]. - Interest Rate Expectations: The release of inflation data increased market expectations of interest rate cuts in the remaining two FOMC meetings this year and next year [24]. - Labor Market: The suspension of ADP providing employment data to the Fed may increase concerns about the US labor market [32]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The cancellation of the planned US - Russia meeting and new sanctions on Russian oil exports, as well as US military actions near Venezuela, may lead to higher oil prices due to geopolitical risks [37]. 3.3.2 Supply Factors - OPEC+ Production: OPEC+ countries generally increased production in September, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase of 248 thousand barrels per day [41]. - US Sanctions: US sanctions on Russia may affect oil supply. - Other Producers: Iran and Iraq also increased production, while the US had a small production cut [46][49]. 3.3.3 Demand Factors - Weak Consumption: Consumption performance remained weak, and the manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve [52][56]. - Slowing Refining: The production of refined oil products continued to slow down [62]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - Crude Oil Inventory: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased in the week ending October 22, which supported oil prices [63]. - Refined Oil Inventory: US refined oil inventories decreased, but due to low refinery utilization and the off - season of consumption, it was difficult to boost oil prices [67]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, oil prices may have some upside due to the deterioration of US - Russia relations, but considering the OPEC+ meeting and US oil storage needs, the upside is limited, and oil prices are under pressure in the long - term [73].