瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of increasing supply and demand and inventory reduction. The upstream raw material prices are rising, the supply of domestic lithium carbonate is growing steadily, the demand is strong, and the industrial inventory is gradually decreasing. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column is slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly strong oscillation and pay attention to controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 81,900 yuan/ton, up 2,380 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 188,469 hands, down 4,674 hands. The trading volume of the main contract is 483,478 hands, up 52,304 hands. The spread between near and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The warehouse receipt of GZEE is 27,739 hands/ton, down 960 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,550 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 74,300 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 5,350 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 941 US dollars/ton, up 44 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 8,600 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 2,835 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons. The monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons. The monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%. The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate remains unchanged at 32,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 99,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China remains unchanged at 162,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium cobaltate remains unchanged at 343,500 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (622 power type) in China remains unchanged at 141,500 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China remains unchanged at 152,500 yuan/ton. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 59%, up 2%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, up 0.55%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 23.64%, up 1.49%. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 25.69%, down 1.63% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 137,942 contracts, up 7,152 contracts. The total put position is 57,430 contracts, up 3,173 contracts. The put - call ratio of the total position is 41.63%, up 0.1494%. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.35%, down 0.0087% [2] 3.7 Industry News - From October 22 - 25, 2025, the "2025 Automotive Industry Statistical Annual Report Work Conference" was held in Changsha. The overall automobile production and sales are growing, but the industry still faces multiple challenges. Suggestions include promoting the implementation of stable - growth policies, gradually phasing out the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy, and strengthening comprehensive management of the "involution" [2] - In September 2025, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. It exported 151 tons of lithium carbonate, a 59% month - on - month decrease and a 9% year - on - year decrease [2] - In September 2025, China's export volume of lithium iron phosphate was 3,091.99 tons, a 54.6% month - on - month increase and a 599% year - on - year increase [2] - In September 2025, China's cumulative export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 1,351 tons, a 7.1% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative import volume was 10.365 tons [2]