红枣异动点评：市场情绪偏弱，盘面继续下探

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of jujube futures, CJ2601, continued last week's downward trend, closing at 10,390 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.20%, with a trading volume of 377,382 lots and an open interest of 185,516, a daily reduction of 2,314 [1]. - With the early jujube harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5]. - Looking ahead, as the new - season jujubes gradually increase in volume and the old - season high inventory weighs on the market, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand, the futures price fluctuates downward rapidly. The current futures price basically corresponds to the lower edge of the new - season mainstream price of 6.5 - 8 yuan/ton, and there may be certain support around 10,000 - 10,300 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply Pressure - In the new season, affected by the solar terms, the jujube harvest time is earlier than last year. The overall mainstream price of new - season jujubes is 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, significantly higher than that of the same - grade old jujubes, and the market acceptance of new jujubes is limited [2]. - The old - season inventory is high. The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9,103 tons, an increase of 94 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year increase of 109.22%. The steel union predicts that the old - season social inventory is estimated to be 30 - 350,000 tons, which can make up for the expected reduction in the new - season output [2]. Weak Demand and Sentiment - In the main sales areas such as Hebei Cuierzhuang and Guangzhou Ruyifang, the arrival volume is average, about 3 - 4 vehicles per day, and the morning market trading volume is about 1 - 2 vehicles. The downstream consumption is cautious, mainly purchasing on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [3]. - Previously, due to the uncertainty of the new - season output, the futures price fluctuated sharply. Now, the expected reduction in production has been basically reflected in the price. With the early harvest and the opening price in line with expectations, the phased positive factors are exhausted. Coupled with obvious capital disturbances, the market breaks through the downward trend, and the market bearish sentiment is strong [5].