瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed, and domestic production is gradually declining. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, infrastructure and real - estate demand are gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills is still increasing. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a price increase, the short - selling sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,815 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, a change of - 29,055. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,452 lots, an increase of 1,130. The position volume of the main contract is 115,124 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, a decrease of 299 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 5. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600, an increase of 2,900. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700, an increase of 6,900. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000, a decrease of 1,000 [2] 6. Industry News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, reaching a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US September CPI data was released, and the market has fully digested the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of the year [2] 7. Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2]