瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251027

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of ordinary polysilicon materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry is narrowing. Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium ability due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is weak, and the component tender price continues to decline, leading to the postponement of centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. In the international market, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and although the US tariff policy has loosened, it is difficult to fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America is surging, which buffers the decline in demand to some extent. The rumored policy of strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation has boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time are still unclear. The upward momentum of polysilicon is expected to weaken further, and the operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,500 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 105,877 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 24,322 lots; the basis of polysilicon from December to January is 40 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,535 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2,150 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, with no change; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.02 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 675 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1,545 yuan/ton [3]. - Upstream Situation: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,965 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 45 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon is 1,939.85 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons [3]. - Industrial Situation: The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [3]. - Downstream Situation: The monthly output of solar cells is 6.9857 million kilowatts, with a month-on-month increase of 347,500 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,700 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 US dollars/piece; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, with no change [3]. b) Industry News - Affected by recent policy guidance and the adjustment of electricity prices during the wet and dry seasons, some polysilicon production bases in the southwest region have gradually reduced raw material input, and are expected to achieve full production suspension from the end of October to early November, involving an annual production capacity of about 320,000 tons. As November approaches, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises in the southwest region will rise due to the dry season, and some enterprises have begun to reduce raw material input, resulting in a reduction in production. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3]. c) Key Points of Attention - Investors need to closely monitor the actual progress of the policy at the end of October and the actual implementation of production cuts in the southwest region [3].