瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current new cotton is in the listing stage, with upside pressure from corresponding hedging. It is expected that the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited. The downstream textile enterprises' demand is relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the trade situation on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 112,802 lots, down 5,250 lots; main contract open interest of cotton: 585,287 lots, down 5,622 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 2,488 lots, down 15 lots. Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 133 lots, down 117 lots; main contract open interest of cotton yarn: 24,189 lots, up 139 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 6 lots, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,056 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty): 14,010 yuan/ton; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,186 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,535 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,667 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons; cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged; imported cotton profit: 793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 25.24 days, up 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.43 days, up 0.31 days; cloth output: 2.811 billion meters, up 0.11 billion meters; yarn output: 2.0738 million tons, up 45,900 tons; monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 12453247 thousand US dollars, down 1692657 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 11966516 thousand US dollars, down 426686 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.15%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option of cotton: 6.58%, down 1.16%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.2%, down 0.49%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - About 62% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought as of the week ending October 21, unchanged from 61% in the previous week. In the domestic market, Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress exceeding 50%, faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning factories increased slightly. Due to continuous rainfall, the purchase progress of inland cotton was slow [2].