瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market's surplus pattern is difficult to change. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a focus on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract is 122,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the November - December contracts is - 340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,325 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The position volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 108,989 lots, a decrease of 12,453 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,683 lots, an increase of 474 lots. LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel is 36,075 tons (weekly), an increase of 1,656 tons. The total LME nickel cancelled warrants are 6,432 tons, an increase of 180 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 29,780 tons, an increase of 2,970 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main NI contract is 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 194.12 US dollars/ton, down 3.56 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 tons, a decrease of 23.22 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 tons (weekly), a decrease of 30.93 tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.03 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 108.53 tons, an increase of 21.12 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.67 tons, a decrease of 0.69 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached basic agreements on important economic and trade issues [3] - The US CPI in September increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year, but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3]