瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251027

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. There was a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues in the negotiation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation supported steel prices. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, terminal demand rebounded, and inventory declined. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan; the position volume was 1,482,730 lots, down 18,766 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 53,875 lots, down 4,034 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 134,667 tons, down 2,398 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 199 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 61 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2873 million tons, down 12,300 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2246 million tons, up 6,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.37%, up 0.16%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 773,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.3757 million tons, down 37,700 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which prohibited the increase of the total steel production capacity in key areas and the transfer of steel production capacity between different key areas. Hebei's Tangshan, Langfang, Handan, and Baoding launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on October 27 at 12:00. Some steel mills in Tangshan extended the sintering machine production - restriction time to the end of October, and blast furnaces were shut down by 30% according to capacity, which was estimated to affect the daily hot - metal output by 91,000 tons and 409,500 tons in 4.5 days [2]