尿素产业链周报-20251027

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cost support and the recovery of agricultural demand drive a short - term rebound, but high inventory and supply surplus suppress the upside space. The fundamentals of urea maintain a pattern of oscillatingly strong but with limited height [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - Raw material thermal coal prices continue to rise, raising the urea cost line. Some gas - based enterprises are under maintenance due to losses, increasing the expectation of supply - side contraction [4] - The improvement in weather promotes wheat sowing, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing. The compound fertilizer operating rate increases by 3.53% month - on - month, with short - term demand improvement [4] - Enterprise inventory reaches 1.6154 million tons, a record high. Rainfall in the north slows down shipments, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remains unsolved [4] - Daily production remains at a high level of 196,200 tons. Previously maintained devices are gradually resuming production, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different contract months, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and gross profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, thermal coal spot prices, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][40][45]