软商品日报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The fundamentals of the sugar futures market are under pressure. The 2025/26 sugar season in Central - South Brazil is expected to see a 3.1% increase in production to 4142 million tons, strengthening the global sugar market's oversupply expectations and pressuring raw sugar prices. In China, typhoons in Guangxi have led to low sugar content in sugarcane, potentially delaying the start of the new sugar season and limiting the increase in production. Although short - term cost support is evident, weak terminal procurement and slow spot inventory clearance keep the market in a weak and volatile pattern [3]. - Cotton: The expectation of new cotton production increase has been slightly revised. The purchase price is relatively firm, but the downstream peak season is weakening, and market confidence is insufficient. With the increasing supply pressure of new cotton, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure under the high - yield situation. Attention should be paid to the final production of Xinjiang cotton and Sino - US trade relations [14]. - Apples: Late Fuji apples in the northwestern and Shandong production areas are in the final stage of harvest. Previous continuous rainy weather has affected color development in the western regions and delayed bag - removing in Shandong. The large - scale supply of high - quality apples is postponed. As the Frost's Descent has passed, buyers have increased their purchasing efforts, mainly targeting Shandong apples. Most areas have slow or no storage progress. The long - term apple price may remain strong, but the main contract lags behind the far - month contracts due to potential shortages of deliverable goods [19]. - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. With good weather in the production areas and high inventories of old jujubes, jujube prices may still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase and production determination [27]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On October 27, 2025, SR01 closed at 5445 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.31%. Other contracts also showed different price trends and spreads. For example, SR01 - 05 was 48 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - Basis: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For instance, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 304 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton [9]. - Import Prices: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices decreased both daily and weekly. The price differences between domestic locations (such as Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou) and imported sugar also changed [12]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On October 27, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.18%) from the previous day. Cotton 05 and 09 also had price increases, while some棉纱 contracts showed significant price drops [15]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1263 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09 also had their respective values and changes [16]. Apples - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 27, 2025, AP01 closed at 8936 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day and 0.80% from the previous week. Spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions remained mostly stable, with some showing small price changes [20]. - Spreads and Basis: AP01 - 05 was - 481 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 4.79% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 46 yuan/ton, with a significant decline compared to the previous period [20]. Jujubes No specific price or spread data was provided in a tabular form, but the report mentioned that due to high old - jujube inventories and the approaching new - jujube harvest, jujube prices may face downward pressure [27].