原木点评：成本支撑减弱叠加需求疲软，原木跌超

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market should focus on the impact of the follow - up progress of China - US economic and trade consultations on import cost expectations and changes in spot prices [7][9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On October 27, 2025, the main contract LG2601 of log futures accelerated its decline, hitting the daily limit during the session and reaching a low of 780 yuan/cubic meter. At the close, it closed at 787 yuan/cubic meter, down 5.12% for the day. Compared with the high of 840 yuan/cubic meter on October 22, the cumulative decline reached 6.31% [1]. Reasons for the Decline - Cost Support Weakening: From October 25 - 26, China - US economic and trade teams had consultations. As the relationship showed signs of easing, the previous expectation of higher import costs of logs due to counter - measures weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions, causing the futures price to fall [3]. - Weak Demand and Negative Expectations: The current log spot market has weak demand. During the traditional peak season, the daily average outbound volume remained at around 60,000 cubic meters. As national subsidy policies are coming to an end or their effects are weakening, the future procurement demand for furniture materials will decline. On the supply side, log imports are seasonally increasing in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually accumulating. As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.84 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4][5]. Market Outlook - The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level, and the market is worried about a "discount at delivery" situation. The spot market price is stable, but downstream procurement is inactive. The current inverted price between the domestic and foreign markets provides some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. The market's bearish sentiment is intensifying due to the expected weakening of the follow - up fundamentals [7].