黄金本周迎来重要催化剂，预计决定短期金价走势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been significant, with a notable drop of 6.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, and prices fluctuating between $3950 and $4150 from October 22 to 27 [1][2]. - The primary drivers of recent volatility include a reduction in geopolitical risks, a reversal in market sentiment, and profit-taking after a cumulative increase of over 65% in gold prices since 2025 [2]. - The report highlights that despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with a recommendation to view price corrections below $4000 as potential long-term investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with related assets also suffering losses, including a 7.60% drop in gold stock ETFs [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices were adjusted downwards by over 6% [1]. Market Drivers - Geopolitical risk reduction and a shift in market sentiment have led to decreased demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - The report notes a liquidity squeeze effect in the A-share market, causing systemic sell-offs and impacting gold stocks negatively [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations have shifted, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has further pressured gold prices [2]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key upcoming data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payroll data, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [3]. - A dovish signal from the Fed could boost gold prices, while a hawkish stance may lead to further declines [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a gold asset allocation of 10%-15% in investment portfolios to hedge against dollar credit risks [8]. - It recommends focusing on companies with strong resource reserves, cost control, and expansion potential, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [8].