宏观周报（2025/10/20-10/24）：中美经贸磋商重启，释放积极信号-20251027

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - US CPI data shows inflation easing, with September CPI rising 3.0% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.0%, both below market expectations[14] - Market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with expectations of two more cuts in 2025 and three in 2026[14] - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating economic resilience amid the resumption of US-China trade talks[11] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock indices saw overall gains, with technology stocks leading, while Netflix shares dropped over 10% due to tax issues in Brazil[14] - A-shares in China showed strong performance, particularly in the technology sector, driven by policy expectations from the "15th Five-Year Plan"[11] - European markets faced volatility, with the PMI improving to 52.2, but concerns over internal weaknesses in France and geopolitical tensions led to market pullbacks[16] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Multi-asset FOF portfolio suggests a composition of 60% equities, 30% fixed income, and 10% commodities, with an annualized return of 37%[35] - Investors are advised to focus on equity funds due to rising market risk appetite and potential opportunities from the "15th Five-Year Plan"[40] - Recommendations include maintaining a portion of gold in portfolios due to expected support from multiple factors including Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar[40]