Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Steel prices have strengthened, with a rebound of 100 yuan per ton from the low. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has recovered well this week, approaching last year's level, but the off - balance - sheet demand is lower year - on - year. Plate inventories are high, and steel mill profits are falling, which will suppress production. The 1 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to recover at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils). The coking coal long - hot - rolled coil short arbitrage has widened, and the arbitrage position can be held [1]. Summaries by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3200 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil rose from 3265 to 3312 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet and slab prices have changed, with steel billet rising by 30 to 2960 yuan. Profits of various steel products in different regions have declined. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropped from - 5 to - 12 yuan [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a 1.0% increase [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a - 1.7% decline. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - Transaction and Demand: Building material trading volume increased by 3.2 to 12.3, a 35.5% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a 2.0% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, iron ore futures stabilized and rebounded. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side has weakening demand for restocking due to falling steel mill profits and decreasing pig iron output. The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering but lower than expected. After the previous callback, the negative factors have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with a reference range of 770 - 830. Recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. Summaries by Directory - Iron Ore Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different varieties decreased slightly. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.0, a 12.2% increase [3]. - Spot Prices and Price Indexes: The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased. For example, the price of PB powder rose from 778 to 792 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a - 19.5% decline, and the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a 1.6% increase [3]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a - 0.4% decline, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly outputs also decreased [3]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 54.7 to 14423.59, a 0.4% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a 1.1% increase [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures showed an upward trend. For coke, the second - round price increase proposed by mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and there is still room for further increase. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the price has risen, resulting in increased costs for coke production and reduced coke production. Steel mill demand is weak, and inventories are in a state of mixed changes. For coking coal, the spot price is rising, supply is tight due to production cuts, and there is restocking demand after de - stocking. Speculatively, go long on the 2601 contract of coke in the range of 1650 - 1850 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and long coking coal short coke for arbitrage [5]. Summaries by Directory - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1561 to 1612 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coke rose from 1758 to 1780 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal in different forms and contracts also increased. For example, the price of Mongolia 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) rose from 1318 to 1329 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal rose from 1249 to 1264 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply: Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants dropping from 65.3 to 64.6 tons. Coking coal production also decreased, with the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines dropping from 854 to 848 tons [5]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased from 241.0 to 239.9 tons, indicating weakening demand for coke [5]. - Inventory Changes: Coke inventory remained stable overall, with coking plants and steel mills de - stocking and ports increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory showed mixed changes, with coal mines and steel mills de - stocking and coking plants and ports increasing inventory [5].
《黑色》日报-20251028
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-28 00:58