Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - Inventory Change: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly): Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - Supply: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - Supply: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - Fundamental Data: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - Inventory Change: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].
《特殊商品》日报-20251028
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:04