集运早报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS (European Line) significantly exceeded expectations, potentially driving the market up today [1]. - As of now, cargo volume shows no obvious signs of improvement, but shipping companies have implemented many suspension operations. The market currently expects the freight rate in January to potentially reach between 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points) [1]. - Overall, with subsequent positive drivers, adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for contracts EC2512 and EC2602, and a "sell on rallies" strategy for EC2604 [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change (%) | Yesterday's Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1130.9 | -0.61 | 1377 | 3428 | -864 | | EC2512 | 1775.0 | -3.06 | 27748 | 27995 | -2254 | | EC2602 | 1571.6 | -1.84 | 6174 | 13138 | 1629 | | EC2604 | 1178.8 | -0.07 | 2045 | 14146 | -78 | | EC2606 | 1387.1 | -0.77 | 109 | 1371 | -6 | [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information | Month Spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 - 2512 | -644.1 | -693.2 | 49.1 | -9.8 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 203.4 | 230.0 | -26.6 | 2.1 | [1] Index Information | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Period Change | Previous Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TTN | Weekly | 2025/10/27 | Points | 1312.71 | 1140.38 | 1031.80 | 15.11% | 10.52% | | SCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/24 | US dollars/TEU | 1246 | 1145 | 1068 | 8.82% | 7.21% | | CCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/24 | Points | 1293.12 | 1267.91 | 1287.15 | 1.99% | -1.49% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/10/24 | Points | 822.3 | 803.21 | 698.67 | 2.38% | 14.96% | [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream is booking space for early November (Week 45). - Week 44 offline quotes: PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, OA 1800 US dollars. - November price increase announcements: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly between 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the disk. MSK opened at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations. Online, HMM reduced to 1900 US dollars, OOCL reduced to 2300 - 2400 US dollars (one route reduced to 2100 US dollars), and HPL reduced to 2335 US dollars [2]. Related News - On October 28, the Israeli military stated that it will not stop attacking Hamas until all hostages are returned. - On October 28, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel will maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip. - On October 27, Israel announced the lifting of the emergency state in southern Israel for the first time in more than two years [3].