永安期货有色早报-20251028

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a buy - on - pullback strategy considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and long - term holdings on dips are recommended while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading. Consider taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and overseas markets and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and there is some price - supporting motivation from the Indonesian policy side with increased short - term macro uncertainties [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead prices at home and abroad will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the coming week, and it is recommended to observe the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts before making cautious operations [6]. - For tin, in the short term, it is recommended to follow the macro sentiment and stay on the sidelines. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold on dips near the cost line [10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [13][16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market sentiment is dominated by tariff negotiation progress and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are still uncertainties in scrap copper supply in the fourth quarter and next year, which may affect copper consumption and supply. Overseas, there is no sign of inventory delivery despite the opening of exports. The operation of copper and aluminum cables has diverged, and attention should be paid to whether the operation stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during holidays and significant destocking after holidays. Some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production due to equipment failures [1]. Zinc - The zinc price has oscillated upward. The domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in the second quarter. The domestic smelting has slightly recovered in October. The demand is seasonally weak at home and faces some production resistance abroad. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices [3]. Stainless Steel - The steel mill production schedule in October has increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable, and the inventory remains at a high level [3]. Lead - The tight spot market has driven the lead price up. The supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly, and the refined ore is in short supply. The demand for batteries has increased, and the expected weakening of demand has been reversed. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. The market is expected to turn from peak season to off - season in October, but the spot tightness has continued [6]. Tin - The tin price has oscillated. The mining processing fee is at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. There are still differences in the output in overseas Wa State, and Indonesia's tin exports are affected in the short term. The demand is mainly supported by rigidity, and the overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - The production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. Considering the maintenance of polysilicon leading enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [13][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The quotes of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have increased. The basis of the main and near - month contracts has changed, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [16].