《能源化工》日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply in China is expected to remain ample due to upcoming plant restarts and new capacity, while demand is limited as downstream products face losses and high inventories. Short - term BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [1]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and profit issues. Although new plants are starting up, demand is weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. Methanol - The port methanol market is pressured by high inventory and weak demand, with price and basis both weakening. The inland market has deeper price drops. The market is trading on the "weak reality vs strong expectation" logic, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas restrictions [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply growth is slowing due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand is improving, and inventories are decreasing. Cost support is strong, but the 01 contracts face inventory pressure. Long - term low - buying opportunities in the 05 contracts can be considered, while also monitoring the impact of sanctions on refinery loads [4]. Para - Xylene (PX), PTA, Ethylene Glycol (EG), and Short - Fiber - PX supply is tightening due to unplanned maintenance, and demand is strengthening. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 6700, and positions can be reduced on rallies. - PTA's rebound is limited by the lack of substantial policies and weak crude oil supply - demand expectations. Pressure above 4600 should be noted, and long positions can be reduced on rallies. - EG's short - term rebound is driven by cost, but the far - month supply - demand structure is weak, with significant inventory build - up in November - December. - Short - fiber prices are rebounding due to good demand and strong raw materials, but the rebound space is limited, and the low - inventory provides support [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda demand is weak in the short term due to high supply and low alumina prices, but there may be support in the medium - to - long term as downstream restocking is expected. Existing short positions can be closed, and downstream restocking should be monitored. - PVC is in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to increase next week as some maintenance ends, while demand remains weak. Cost provides bottom - end support, and the market is expected to remain under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Pure Benzene - Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (December) decreased by $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel (-0.5%), and WTI crude (December) fell by $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel (-0.3%). CFR Japan naphtha dropped by $3 to $578 per ton (-0.5%) [1]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene spot in East China decreased by $10 to $6510 per ton (-0.2%), and EB2512 futures fell by $8 to $6539 per ton (-0.1%) [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow increased by $68 to -$337 per ton (16.8%), and EPS cash flow rose by $10 to $240 per ton (4.3%) [1]. Inventories - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.40 million tons to 8.50 million tons (-14.1%), and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports dropped by 0.95 million tons to 19.30 million tons (-4.7%) [1]. Industry Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate remained at 79.2%, while domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 72.7% [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.18%), and MA2605 closed at 2325 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.35%) [3]. Inventories - Methanol port inventory increased by 2.08 million tons to 151.2 million tons (1.40%), and social inventory rose by 2.13 million tons to 187.3 million tons (1.15%) [3]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.70% to 75.85%, and downstream external MTO device operating rate dropped by 8.18% to 78.1% [3]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7024 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.79%), and PP2601 closed at 6699 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan (0.56%) [4]. Inventories - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 million tons to 51.5 million tons (-2.81%), and PP enterprise inventory dropped by 4.02 million tons to 63.9 million tons (-5.92%) [4]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 81.5%, and PP device operating rate fell by 2.28% to 75.9% [4]. PX, PTA, EG, and Short - Fiber PX - Related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by $9 to $824 per ton (1.1%), and PX spot price in RMB decreased by 11 yuan to 6732 yuan/ton (-0.2%) [5]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - PTA spot price in East China increased by 55 yuan to 4505 yuan/ton (1.2%), and TA2601 futures rose by 98 yuan to 4616 yuan/ton (2.2%) [5]. EG - Related Prices and Spreads - EG spot price in East China decreased by 4 yuan to 4183 yuan/ton (-0.1%), and EG2601 futures rose by 32 yuan to 4109 yuan/ton (0.8%) [5]. Short - Fiber - 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price increased by 5 yuan to 6405 yuan/ton (0.1%), and short - fiber futures PF2512 rose by 104 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton (1.7%) [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price decreased by 62.5 yuan to 2500 yuan/ton (-2.4%), and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4600 yuan/ton (0.0%) [7]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda price increased by $10 to $390 per ton (2.6%), and caustic soda export profit rose by $89 to $125.8 per ton (242.0%) [7]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6%, and PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 73.7% [7]. Demand (Operating Rates) - Alumina industry operating rate data is unavailable, and viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained at 88.6% [7]. Inventories - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 0.7 million tons to 18.8 million tons (-3.8%), and PVC upstream factory inventory dropped by 2.7 million tons to 33.4 million tons (-7.4%) [7].