大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251028

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today. This is due to the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, the new round of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films and support from downstream peak seasons [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7020 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China - US talks; negative factors include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The cost support from crude oil is limited. The China - US talks reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6630 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 69, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend today [6] - Likely Factors: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker demand compared to the same period and more new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]