PTA、MEG早报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, influenced by the industry symposium, the futures market was significantly boosted, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. - For MEG, with the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: Affected by the industry symposium, the PTA futures rose sharply after the afternoon opening. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis stabilized. The trading price range was around 4,440 - 4,565, and the mainstream spot basis was at 01 - 81 [5]. - Basis: The spot price was 4,490, and the 01 - contract basis was - 126, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Main positions: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [5]. - Expectation: The PTA futures were boosted by the symposium, but the spot basis changed little. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate strongly, and the spot basis will have limited improvement [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was fair. The basis of spot goods was high, and some traders participated in replenishment. In the afternoon, the market rose strongly, and the high - level spot transaction reached over 4,225 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4,183, and the 01 - contract basis was 74, with the futures at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [7]. - Main positions: The net short position decreased, which is a bearish factor [6]. - Expectation: With the concentrated arrival of foreign ships this week, port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is about 400,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term price will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: The oil price rebounded by more than 7% last week, the largest single - week increase in the second half of the year. Sanctions against Russia were the main driver, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations also improved market expectations [8]. - Negative factors: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started production last weekend and has now produced products [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and other data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, imports, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis and profit data of futures contracts [13].