大越期货尿素早报-20251028

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from the high level, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to warm up in the short term. It is predicted that the UR contract will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. Bearish factor is domestic oversupply [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is down slightly. Agricultural demand rebounds, industrial demand is weak, export volume increases. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market is expected to warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1590 (+20), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of UR2601 contract is - 50, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract rebounds on the disk. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand rebounds, international urea prices are strong, and export volume increases. The domestic market is still significantly oversupplied, and the price is expected to warm up in the short term, with a predicted volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | Spot | Spot delivery product price is 1590 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1610 (+40), Henan spot price is 1590 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2666 [6]. | | Futures | UR01 contract price is 1640 (- 2), UR05 contract price is 1713 (- 6), UR09 contract price is 1745 (- 3). The basis of UR01 is - 50 (+22) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 5288 (- 119), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]