大越期货纯碱早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1246 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: Main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1229 | 1180 | - 49 | | Current Value | 1246 | 1190 | - 56 | | Change Rate | 1.38% | 0.85% | 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - Weekly industry operating rate: 84.94% [18]. - Weekly output: 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash. The output is at a historical high [20]. - New production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Weekly sales - to - production ratio: 99.78% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].