铁矿石早报（2025-10-28）-20251028

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a reduction in this month's arrival volume. The port inventory is decreasing, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy. The trade war is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and technical aspects, the market is expected to be in a high - level shock. The domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan of capacity reduction impacts the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Steel mill's hot metal production starts to decrease, this month's arrival volume decreases, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory decreases, and there will be a crude steel reduction policy, trade war eases; overall assessment is neutral [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 836, with a basis of 49; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 854, with a basis of 67. The spot is at a premium to the futures; assessment is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; assessment is neutral [2]. Technical Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward; assessment is neutral [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, and the long position decreases; assessment is bullish [2]. Expectation - Domestic demand decreases, and the capacity reduction plan impacts the market. Adopt a high - level shock mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory decreases [6]. - Import incurs losses [6]. - The downstream steel price rises, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].