焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-28）-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: Environmental and safety measures have tightened, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and production capacity release is limited. With stable coking and steel demand and some speculative traders entering the market, coal mines have new orders and smooth shipments, with some tight - resource coal prices rising. The basis shows spot premium, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net long. After the second round of coke price increase, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and the procurement of raw coal has increased. However, due to low profit and high raw material prices, coke enterprises' production increase willingness is low, and coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - Coke: After two rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' profit has slightly recovered, and their production enthusiasm has increased, but the profit recovery is less than expected, so some enterprises still maintain production restrictions. Coke shipments are smooth, and inventory is tight. The basis shows spot discount, inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short. Supported by steel mills' acceptance of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, and sales are good. However, considering the continuous decline in molten iron production and poor terminal demand, the room for coke price increase is limited, and coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Coking Coal: On October 27, 2025, the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, with some prices rising. For example, the price of Russian main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port is 1340 with a rise of 115 [9]. - Coke: On October 27, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have increased. For example, the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Langya Port is 1530, up 40 [8]. 3.2 Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [21]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Other Data - Coking Coal: The national 230 independent coke enterprise samples have a capacity utilization rate of 74.48% [39]. - Coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [43].