大越期货棉花早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, multiple factors such as production, consumption, and import - export data are somewhat bearish, but there are also bullish factors like the basis and the position of the K - line relative to the 20 - day average. The overall expectation is that the new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors are ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The content does not contain a previous day's review section. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton year. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons with an ending inventory of 1592.5 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 year in October: production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,833, and the basis is 1268 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons in the 25/26 year in October, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus The content does not contain a today's focus section. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast: In the 25/26 year, global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons [12][13]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 25/26 year, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [14]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data The content does not contain position data other than the description of the main position being bearish and the net short position decreasing in the daily tips section.