国债期货早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will resume trading of treasury bonds in the open market. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, with the decline intensifying in the evening. Treasury bond futures rose collectively, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32%. The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan. The inter - bank market liquidity tightened significantly, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions jumped more than 13bp to 1.45% [2]. - The central bank has increased the amount of MLF renewals for the eighth consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line. The CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the fifth consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, the first cut this year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Fundamentals: The central bank's actions led to changes in bond yields and futures prices. The 30 - year "25 Extra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" yield declined by 5.75bp, and the 10 - year "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 16" yield declined by 5bp. Treasury bond futures rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.32% [2]. - Funding situation: On October 27, the central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 148.3 billion yuan [2]. - Basis: The TS main contract basis was - 0.0023 (spot discount to futures, bearish). The TF main contract basis was 0.0850 (spot premium to futures, somewhat bullish). The T main contract basis was 0.1987 (spot premium to futures, bullish), and the TL main contract basis was 0.3712 (spot premium to futures, bullish) [2]. - Inventory: The deliverable bond balances of the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, a neutral situation [3]. - Market trend: The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were upward, indicating a bullish trend [3]. - Main positions: The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, with long positions increasing. The T main contract had a net long position, but long positions decreased [4]. - Contract data: | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.175 | 0.15% | 75942 | 229240 | 2285 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.745 | 0.12% | 58124 | 134170 | 4746 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.388 | 0.05% | 29975 | 67050 | - 122 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 115.40 | 0.32% | 113706 | 141776 | 2710 | 220008.IB | [7] 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis - No specific text - based analysis of spot bonds is provided, but there are charts related to DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads [8][11][12]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - There are charts showing the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CFFEX treasury bond futures [14][17][18]