大越期货股指期货早报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a widespread increase with higher trading volume the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 4000 mark, and both the SSE 50 and micro - cap indices reached new highs for the year. There was a rotation of hot sectors, which is a positive sign. - The IC2512 contract had a discount of 124.99 points, and the IM2512 contract had a discount of 172.78 points, which is a negative sign. - The margin trading balance was 2.4398 trillion yuan, an increase of 59 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment. - The IH2512 contract had a discount of 2.73 points, and the IF2512 contract had a discount of 31.62 points, which is neutral. - In terms of the market trend, IH > IC > IF > IM, and all of them were above the 20 - day moving average, which is positive. - Regarding the positions of major players, the long positions in the IF contract decreased, while those in the IH contract increased, and the long positions in the IC contract decreased, generally showing a positive trend. - Due to the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the rebound in the technology sector after the Fourth Plenary Session, the short - term index is expected to rebound. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on days of significant intraday increases. The index is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Index Futures Data: The report provides detailed data on various index futures contracts, including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [3]. - Base and Spread Charts: There are charts showing the base and spread trends of the SSE 50 and CSI 500 index futures over a long period, with data sourced from Wind Information and organized by Dayue Futures [4][7]. Spot Market - Important Index Daily Returns: Charts display the daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [10][11]. - Style Index Daily Returns: There are multiple charts presenting the daily returns of different style indices, including cyclical and non - cyclical indices, low - P/E, high - P/E, and medium - P/E indices, large - cap, small - cap, value, and growth indices, with data from Wind Information [13][14][16]. Market Structure - AH - Share Premium: A chart shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index over time, with data from Wind Information [19][20]. - Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE): A chart depicts the historical PE (TTM) trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [22][23]. - Price - to - Book Ratio (PB): A chart shows the historical PB trends of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index, with data from Wind Information [24][25]. Market Fundamentals - Stock Market Fund Inflows: A chart presents the net inflows of funds into the A - share market and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [26][27]. - Margin Trading Balance: A chart shows the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index over time, with data from Wind Information [28][29]. - Northbound Capital Flows: A chart displays the net inflows of northbound capital (Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect) over time, with data from Wind Information [30][31]. - Stock Unlockings: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - Funding Costs: A chart shows the trends of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates over time, with data from Wind Information [36][37]. Market Sentiment - Trading Activity: Charts show the turnover rates (based on free - floating market capitalization) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index over time, with data from Wind Information [39][40][42]. - Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. Other Indicators - Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield: A chart shows the dividend yields of index futures and the 10 - year Treasury yield over time, with data from Wind Information [48][49]. - Exchange Rate: A chart presents the trend of the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate over time, with data from Wind Information [50][51]. - New Account Openings and Index Tracking: Although mentioned, no specific data or chart details are provided in the summary scope. - Newly Established Fund Sizes: Charts for the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are mentioned, but no specific data details are provided in the summary scope.