广发期货日评-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - Precious Metals: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - Steel: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - Iron Ore: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - Coking Coal: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - Coke: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - Alumina: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - Aluminum: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - Zinc: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Nickel: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - Urea: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - PX and PTA: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - Short - fiber: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - Ethanol: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - PVC: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - Styrene: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - LLDPE: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - PP: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Methanol: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - Meal: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - Pig: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - Corn: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - Oil: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - Cotton: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - Egg: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - Apple: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - Jujube: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - Soda Ash: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - Glass: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - Rubber: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].