大越期货菜粕早报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. - The market is mainly focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the price. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with reduced production in Ukraine and increased production in Russia offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is 145, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - Price Trends: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - Trading Data: From October 17th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2959 - 3003, and the trading volume between 6.51 - 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2480, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 494 - 523 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The main players have shifted from short to long positions, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been decreasing. For example, on October 27th, there were 4050 receipts, a decrease of 210 from the previous day [16].