大越期货甲醇早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market is expected to have limited upside and downside due to factors such as low upstream factory inventory, high coal prices, high overall mainland operating rates, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both ups and downs this week, affected by sanctions on Iran, with attention on subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2240 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The mainland has cost - side support from low upstream factory inventory and high coal prices, but also faces supply pressure from high operating rates and negative feedback from olefin plants. The port is affected by sanctions on Iran, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The overall methanol price is expected to be volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol operating rates are down, some acetic acid plants are in production or have planned production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 125.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.41 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 6.34 million tons to 87.70 million tons [5]. - Market Price and Spread: Various market prices and spreads are provided, including those of spot and futures markets, and different regional price differences. For example, the futures closing price was 2268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; the basis was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. - Operating Rates: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. Operating rates in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - Production Profits: Different production processes have different profit situations. For example, coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia had a profit of 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value; natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest had a profit of - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [19]. - Downstream Product Data: Traditional downstream product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained stable. Production profits and operating rates of downstream products also showed different changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production was - 158 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous value; the operating rate was 25.42%, an increase of 0.90% from the previous value [29][34]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [56]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, and some plants in other countries are operating normally or are in maintenance [57]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant were shut down for maintenance on March 15, 2025, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days [58].