大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - Disk and Position: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Market Quotes Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - Demand Data Overview: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - Profit of Different Processes: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - Cost: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - Production and Inventory: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].