大越期货豆粕早报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and weather, while the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as imported soybean arrivals and spot - price discounts [9]. - The soybean A2601 is predicted to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but is also pressured by factors like Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 is in a neutral position in terms of fundamentals, with a bearish sentiment in basis, a bullish sentiment in inventory, a neutral sentiment in the market trend, and a bearish sentiment in the main - position and expected trends [9]. - The soybean A2601 is neutral in fundamentals, neutral in basis, bearish in inventory, bullish in the market trend, bearish in the main - position, and has a complex expected trend affected by multiple factors [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The domestic imported soybean arrivals in October remain high, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened, but the market is still in an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [14]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean harvest weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement, and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [15]. - Current main logic: focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Spread - The soybean meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating spot discount [23]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [29]. - Inventory and Production - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remains high, and the soybean meal inventory has declined from the high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in August increased year - on - year [47][51]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from the high level, and the demand for off - season stockpiling has decreased [49]. - Supply and Demand Balance - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - Sowing and Harvest Progress - The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years are presented, including the sowing rate, harvest rate, and other data [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - USDA Reports - The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans [43]. 5. Position Data - There is no specific content in the given text related to summarizing position data, so this part is skipped.