新兴铸管（000778）：季度盈利环比增长，后续有望继续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a net profit of 699 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.67% [1]. - The sales gross margin is recovering, with a notable increase in net profit for Q3 2025, which reached 296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 430.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.74% [2]. - The company is benefiting from a favorable industry environment, with the average steel price index showing a decline of 9.19% year-on-year, yet the overall profitability of the industry has improved significantly [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.183 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit for Q3 2025 was 296 million yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 430.36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.74% [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.02 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 13.3, and 11.3 [4][5]. Production and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the ductile iron pipe industry, with a production target of 9.92 million tons for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [3]. - The sales volume of differentiated ductile iron products increased by 29% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in product structure [3]. - The company has successfully launched a 250,000-ton ductile iron pipe project in Egypt, enhancing its operational capabilities in the Middle East and North Africa [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing urban infrastructure upgrades and water conservancy projects, which will drive demand for its products [4]. - The anticipated recovery in steel demand, driven by government policies and consumer spending, is expected to further enhance the company's profitability [2][4].