瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, 2025, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.25 - 4.0bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds increased by about 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.17% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.08%, 0.15%, 0.25%, and 0.55% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 slightly declined and fluctuated around 1.56% [3]. - Domestically, in September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to rebound due to the low - base effect, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the third quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a steady but slightly slower growth rate compared to the previous value. In September, industrial added value increased significantly year - on - year, social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to converge and entered the contraction range [3]. - Policy - wise, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized that the current economic development faces a complex environment, and the pro - growth policies will continue to exert force. It aims to enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy through expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and stabilizing investment, and requires achieving the annual economic and social development goals [3]. - Overseas, the year - on - year increase in the US CPI in September was lower than expected, and the expectation of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year has increased. In terms of Sino - US trade policy, the new round of trade consultations between China and the US ended, releasing positive signals and alleviating market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions [3]. - Overall, with external demand facing tariff shocks, the repair of domestic demand has become a key support for stabilizing the economy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. The weak fundamental pattern may drive the bond market to strengthen in a volatile manner. However, uncertainties such as the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees continue to disturb market sentiment. Coupled with the recent rebound in risk appetite, it is expected that treasury bond futures will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volume: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.415, 105.895, 102.466, and 115.960 respectively, with increases of 0.25%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.55%. The trading volumes of T main contract decreased by 874, while those of TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 9745, 9448, and 9625 respectively [2]. - Futures Spreads: Multiple futures spreads showed downward trends, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread decreased by 0.03 to 0.27, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.32 [2]. - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts all increased, with increases of 9953, 4078, 1890, and 6157 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased by 708, 3538, 1778, and 3218 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Data - CTD Bonds: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB (4y) increased by 0.2651 to 106.5618 [2]. - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active treasury bonds decreased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 5.50bp, 3.75bp, and 5.00bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 13.08bp to 1.4308%, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 2.70bp to 1.4690%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 3.00bp to 1.5300%, while the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.20bp to 1.5300% [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase operations was 4753 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1595 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Diplomatic and Trade: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level exchanges. The two sides are in close communication about the possible meeting of the two heads of state. The new round of Sino - US trade consultations ended with positive signals [2][3]. - Financial Forum: At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank would resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. Financial regulators also made important statements on policies such as financial services, capital support, and market reform [2][3]. - Financial Report: The State Council's report on financial work proposed to highlight the key direction of financial services to the real economy, implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and promote a decline in the comprehensive financing cost of society [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was held from October 27th to 30th. The US Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision (upper limit) for the period ending October 29th will be announced at 2:00 on October 30th [3]