瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251028

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,560 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate within a certain range (not specified in the text) [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses destocking, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, while the arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected. The demand side shows that the production scheduling of domestic tire enterprises has mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises is expected to remain stable, and the production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 144,081 lots, up 377 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 46,472 lots, down 4,566 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,945 lots, down 1,631 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,752 lots, down 225 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 122,570 tons, down 740 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44,454 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 53.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.75 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.44%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.45%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon on a month - on - month basis [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The production scheduling during the week mostly returned to normal levels, and the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week [2].