Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, with TC fees hovering in the negative range. Overseas mine disturbances still have an impact, and ore prices remain firm. On the supply side, due to a large number of maintenance operations and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. Additionally, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially leading to a decline in the operating rate. Domestic refined copper supply is gradually contracting. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices and adopt a cautious wait - and - see purchasing strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices thus suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulating. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, a month - on - month increase of 0.1909, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market and a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 86,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,390 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,907 dollars/ton, a decrease of 122 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 281,306 lots, a decrease of 12,078 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 30,089 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. LME copper inventory was 135,975 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,792 tons, a decrease of 5,448 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 9,975 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 35,846 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 87,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 88,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 34.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,080 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 - month spread was - 23.84 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.13 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.7 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 78,540 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,830 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 79,240 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,830 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the processing fee in the North was 700 yuan/ton. The production of refined copper was 126.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 60,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 74,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,200 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 223.2 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 437.8 billion yuan, an increase of 58.224 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,770.571 billion yuan, an increase of 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, an increase of 120,949 pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.77%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.9%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 23.95%, an increase of 0.0277. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.37, an increase of 0.1909 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - Diplomatic Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing hope for the two sides to work towards each other to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for the development of bilateral relations. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to multiple hot issues such as the possible meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US trade agreements, and the final agreement of TikTok, stating that the two sides are in close communication about the meeting of the two presidents [2]. - From January to September 2025, under the influence of multiple factors such as the continuous manifestation of the new policies' effects, the in - depth promotion of the national unified market, and the low base in the same period last year, the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year - on - year, driving the benefits of related product industries and their chain industries to improve. Driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, from January to September 2025, the automobile production was 24.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The automobile industry's revenue from January to September 2025 was 7,823.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cost was 6,886.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; the profit was 348.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.5%, lower than the average profit margin of 6% of downstream industrial enterprises. In September, the automobile industry's revenue was 1,018.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%; the cost was 897.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%; the profit was 44.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.4%, a significant increase compared to August and a good increase compared to 3.4% in September last year [2]. - In September, the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August, with the growth rate exceeding 20% for two consecutive months. The new productive forces in high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries grew rapidly, and the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises accelerated significantly [2]. - Since this year, over 76 million consumers have purchased over 126 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through the trade - in program, over 81 million consumers have purchased over 88 million digital products such as mobile phones, and 87,000 sales stores across the country have carried out the trade - in program for electric bicycles, with a cumulative exchange of over 12 million new vehicles [2].
沪铜产业日报-20251028
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:26