农产品早报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: New - season corn has been listed, with prices dropping significantly during the National Day. Short - term prices will be weak due to concentrated supply. Mid - to long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders. A large price drop may trigger farmers' resistance and price rebound [4]. - Starch: After the holiday, raw material prices are weakening, but starch price adjustment is limited by high production costs. Short - term prices are expected to decline, and inventory accumulation may restrict price rebound. Mid - to long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure weighs on prices, and future production is uncertain. Domestically, prices follow international trends, and imported sugar arrival and processed sugar price cuts put pressure on the market [5]. - Cotton: The market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved by orderly chicken culling and reduced new production. Demand increases as the weather cools. The price has rebounded slightly, and future price trends depend on the culling rhythm [13]. - Apples: New - season late - maturing Fuji apples are on the market. Yields are expected to decrease in some areas, and quality is affected by rain. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, and the short - term price may fluctuate upward [17]. - Pigs: Weekend spot prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term price rebounds due to factors like slow - down in slaughter and downstream demand. However, mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, corn prices in some regions decreased (e.g., Changchun down 20, Weifang down 20), and starch prices showed little change. Corn's import profit decreased by 25, and starch's processing profit remained at 112 [3]. - Analysis: New - season corn listing leads to short - term price weakness. Starch prices are affected by raw material prices and cost factors [4]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 5, the basis in Liuzhou decreased by 38, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [5]. - Analysis: International supply pressure and domestic import factors affect sugar prices [5]. Cotton - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 40, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 96. The 32S spinning profit increased by 42 [7]. - Analysis: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the downside is limited [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, the basis increased by 65, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.07 [12]. - Analysis: Supply and demand factors jointly drive the price rebound, and the future depends on the culling rhythm [13]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, the spot price in Shandong remained at 7500, and the basis for different contracts changed [16][17]. - Analysis: Yield and quality issues affect prices, and the short - term price may rise [17]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/10/22 to 2025/10/28, prices in various regions increased (e.g., Henan Kaifeng up 0.15, Shandong Linyi up 0.30), and the basis increased by 320 [17]. - Analysis: Short - term price rebounds, but mid - term supply pressure remains [17].