Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the current situation has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data on a month - on - month basis supports the continuation of polyester operation. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance. With limited new capacity coming online in the far - month, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3] - For MEG, the domestic oil - based maintenance has been implemented in the near - term with some unexpected events, leading to a decline in the load on a month - on - month basis. Overseas operations are stable, and port inventories will continue to accumulate slightly at the beginning of next week. The arrival forecast for the week has declined, and the basis has strengthened on a month - on - month basis. The profitability and price ratio of coal - based MEG have rebounded. In the future, with the high - level operation of existing EG capacity and new capacity coming online, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, after the weakening of coal - based profitability and price ratio, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side. Considering the recent strengthening of coal prices, attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [8] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation is stable, with the operation rate maintained at 94.3%. The production and sales have improved on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory has continued to decline. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and finished - product inventory has decreased, with a slight weakening in profitability. In the future, the overall profitability and operation rate of polyester yarn have not significantly improved. The export of staple fiber itself has maintained high growth. With the decent spot profitability, the high operation rate will be maintained, and the overall inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee on the futures market is not high. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [8] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.2, naphtha decreased by 9, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 10, PTA domestic spot price increased by 30, and POY 150D/48F increased by 15. The naphtha cracking spread decreased by 0.06, PX processing margin decreased by 1, PTA processing margin remained unchanged, and polyester gross profit decreased by 5. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 4104, the TA basis increased by 1, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 0.2 [2] - Device Changes: Dushan Energy's 3 - million - ton device was put into operation [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price decreased by 16, MEG East China price decreased by 16, and MEG far - month price decreased by 15. The coal - based MEG profit decreased by 16, the MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged, the total MEG load, coal - based MEG load, MEG port inventory, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged [8] - Device Changes: Fujian Refining's 400,000 - ton device was under maintenance [8] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 40, the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, the price of virgin hollow staple fiber increased by 40, and the prices of other products remained unchanged. The profit of virgin staple fiber increased by 20, the profit of pure polyester yarn decreased by 20, the price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 80, and the price difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 [8] - Device and Market Information: The near - term device operation is stable, with the operation rate maintained at 94.3%. The production and sales have improved on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory has continued to decline. The spot price is around 6381, and the market basis is around - 30 for December [8] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of RMB - denominated mixed rubber decreased by 50, and the prices of other products had corresponding changes. The daily change in the price difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 30, the price difference between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged, and other price differences also had corresponding changes [8] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping [8] Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 65, and the prices of other products had corresponding changes. The daily change in the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) remained unchanged, the price of ABS (0215A) remained unchanged, the Asian price difference between pure benzene and naphtha remained unchanged, the domestic profit of styrene remained unchanged, the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 30, the domestic profit of PS increased by 69, and the domestic profit of ABS remained unchanged [11]
芳烃橡胶早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-29 00:47