Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iran's plant shutdown is slower than expected, and high imports are expected in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upward momentum, and the downward space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it has no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant [5]. - Polypropylene: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports in Q4. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From October 22 to October 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2252 to 2217, and the South China spot price decreased from 2243 to 2213. The Runan converted price increased from 2470 to 2475 and then decreased to 2450. The Southwest converted price increased from 2490 to 2495. The Hebei converted price remained at 2435, and the Northwest converted price increased from 2620 to 2640 and then decreased to 2638. The CFR China price increased from 262 to 264 and then decreased to 262. The import profit increased from 325 to 326 and then decreased to 324. The main contract basis decreased from - 14 to - 50 [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From October 22 to October 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 780 to 765. The North China LL price decreased from 6860 to 6880, and the East China LL price increased from 7025 to 7125. The East China LD price increased from 9100 to 9175, and the East China HD price increased from 7200 to 7230. The LL import profit decreased from - 127 to - 156 (estimated based on the trend). The main futures price decreased from 6936 to 6985, and the basis decreased from - 50 to - 100. The two - oil inventory decreased from 78 to 76, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 12964 to 12745 [5]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From October 22 to October 28, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6000. The Northeast Asia propylene price decreased from 740 to 730. The East China PP price increased from 6500 to 6560, and the North China PP price decreased from 6468 to 6525. The Shandong powder price remained at 6490, and the East China copolymer price increased from 6820 to 6896. The PP export profit decreased from - 18 to - 29. The main futures price decreased from 6619 to 6657, and the basis decreased from - 100 to - 130. The two - oil inventory decreased from 78 to 76, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 14586 to 14573 [5]. PVC - Price Data: From October 22 to October 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2500, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 822 to 802. The calcium - carbide - based East China price remained at 4680, and the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained at 4300. The import price (CFR China) remained at 690, and the basis remained at - 90 [5].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-29 01:07