集运早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On Monday night, multiple shipping companies reduced prices, leading to a downward oscillation in the Tuesday trading session. Currently, there is no obvious improvement in cargo volume, but shipping companies have implemented numerous sailings cancellations. The market anticipates that the freight rates in November will settle between $2000 - $2200 (1400 - 1540 points). Overall, driven by subsequent price - support and contract - signing factors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for contracts 12 and 02. Contract 12 has a neutral valuation, and trading should focus on the "announced increase - implementation - announced increase - implementation" cycles. For contract 04, a strategy of shorting on rallies is advised [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1788.3 with a 0.75% increase, a basis of - 475.6, trading volume of 26019, and an open interest of 28900 with an increase of 905 - EC2602 closed at 1548.7 with a 1.46% decrease, a basis of - 236.0, trading volume of 6213, and an open interest of 13910 with an increase of 772 - EC2604 closed at 1162.7 with a 1.37% decrease, a basis of 150.0, trading volume of 2279, and an open interest of 14279 with an increase of 133 - EC2606 closed at 1374.0 with a 0.94% decrease, a basis of - 61.3, trading volume of 154, and an open interest of 1402 with an increase of 31 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 1144.2, with a daily change of - 1136.6, and previous values of - 1788.3, - 644.1, - 693.2 - EC2512 - 2602 spread was 36.2, with a daily change of 34.2, and previous values of 239.6, 203.4, 230.0 [1] Spot Indexes - SCEIS was updated on 2025/10/27, reaching 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period, which had a 10.52% increase - SCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at $1246/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period, which had a 7.21% increase - CCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period, which had a 1.49% decrease - NCFI was updated on 2025/10/24, at 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, which had a 14.96% increase [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking cargo space for early November (Week 45). In Week 44, offline quotes were PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800 - Shipping companies announced price increases to $2500 - $2700 in November, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened bookings at $2350, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies reduced prices to $1900 - $2300 - On Monday, HMM cut prices to $1900, HPL to $2335, ONE to $2135, and MSC to $2265 - On Tuesday, MSK dropped to $2200, OOCL to $2150, and YML on a single route to $1900 [1] News - On 10/28, Hamas militants fired at Israeli troops in Gaza, and the Israeli Prime Minister ordered a strong counter - attack - On 10/29, Hamas denied involvement in the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and stated its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also claimed that Israeli military attacks violated the cease - fire and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations - On 10/29, US Vice - President Vance stated that the cease - fire agreement was still in effect [1]